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House prices have risen slightly so far this year, but hopes of a significant market uplift have been delayed by stubbornly high mortgage rates.
The latest data from the Land Registry shows an annual rise of 2.2%, with the average UK house price standing at £285,000 in May.
Here, Which? analyses what's happening to house prices according to other indices including Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove and Zoopla, and explains what might come next.
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The Land Registry's UK House Price Index is the most reliable barometer of what's happening to house prices, as it's based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for May.
The Land Registry says the average price of a property in the UK increased by 2.2% between May 2023 and 2024.
In the 12 months prior, house price growth increased by 0.7%.
There is a gap of £94,000 between the average price paid by first-time buyers and those who are already on the housing ladder in Great Britain (data is not available for Northern Ireland):
As well as Land Registry data, there are a handful of other property price indices that indicate what's going on with house prices.
The portal Rightmove provides the most up-to-date figures, but they're based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Zoopla's figures are based on sold prices, mortgage valuations and recently-agreed sales.
Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data, based on mortgage lending.
Currently, all incides are recording a small year-on-year rise in prices.
| House price index | Month-on-month change | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Rightmove (July 2024) | -0.4% | +0.4% |
| Zoopla (July 2024) | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| Nationwide (July 2024) | +0.3% | +2.1% |
| Halifax (July 2024) | +0.8% | +2.3% |
Price changes vary from region-to-region and country-to-country.
Land Registry data shows all areas recorded small price rises in May, with London, the West Midlands and Wales seeing the highest percentage changes.
| Country/region | Property price | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | £302,000 | +1.3% | +2.2% |
| Scotland | £191,000 | +0.3% | +2.5% |
| Wales | £216,000 | +2.5% | +2.4% |
| Northern Ireland (Jan-Mar 2024) | £178,000 | +0.4% | +4% |
| East Midlands | £246,000 | +1% | +3.2% |
| East of England | £338,000 | +0.6% | +1.9% |
| London | £523,000 | +3.9% | +0.2% |
Source: UK House Price Index, 17 July 2024. Monthly data is not available for N. Ireland, figures are released each quarter. Average prices are rounded to the nearest thousand.
There was a marked drop-off in housing transactions last year, but there are now signs the market is picking up.
The most recent data from HMRC shows that an estimated 91,370 transactions went through in June, up 8% on 2023's figure.
The graph below shows how numbers have fluctuated over the past three years.
This depends on lots of factors, but broadly speaking, properties have been taking longer to sell due to high mortgage rates.
The estate agent trade body Propertymark says that the number of buyers registering with estate agents decreased in May, after a rise in April. 74 prospective buyers registered per agency branch, compared to 88 the previous month.
Rightmove says sellers are taking an average of 59 days to secure a buyer, compared to the 55 days recorded in June last year.
At the start of 2024, lenders and estate agents expected a fairly bleak year for house prices.
HSBC and Nationwide predicted prices would remain flat, while Halifax, Rightmove and Zoopla projected drops of between 1% and 3%.
However, recent forecasts have been more optimistic.
The estate agency Savills predicted a 3% drop in 2024 last November, but has upgraded its forecast to a 2.5% rise.
It says this is underpinned by an easing of mortgage rates and slightly improved outlook for economic growth.
Knight Frank's updated forecast is similar, predicting a 3% rise in the UK as a whole, and a 2% rise in Greater London.
Mortgage rates were high in the first half of 2024, before dipping slightly in July.
The Bank of England's decision to reduce the base rate on 1 August has sparked hopes that rates will continue to drop over the next few months.
For the latest information, check out our guide on the best mortgage rates.
If you're coming up to the end of your fixed term, our story on what to do if you need to remortgage offers advice on your options.
Finally, if you're struggling to make your current repayments, see our guide on what to do if you can't pay your mortgage.
This story is regularly updated with the latest house price index figures and expert views. The last update was on 7 August 2024.
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